From September last year to year-end 2011, Sberbank strongly outperformed VTB. In 2012, the situation has changed: so far, VTB’s shares have been stronger. We think this is not sustainable and continue to favour Sberbank in the mid-term perspective: 1) For several weeks, VTB could gain more ground on Sberbank but this does not look like a medium-term trend reversal. 2) The two large-cap banking stocks have recently been performing differently relative to the MICEX index as well. 3) Oil price dependence favours Sberbank in a relative trade. Bottom line: we see recent relative strength in VTB as another opportunity to enter the pair trade in favour of Sberbank. Technical picture supports our preference for Sberbank on fundamentals.
Back
